6 Responses for "Estimating Realistic Project Deadlines"

1. Griffith

   June 28th, 2005 at 10:33 am

   1

   They teach you that formula in computer engineering classes at university, or at least they should. When I told this to my former boss she told me she already knew it and showed it to me on a book, still it’s nice for those that don’t know.

2. cliche

   June 28th, 2005 at 11:11 am

   2

   Couple more equations
   Marketing department: To/2
   What you tell your boss: Tpx2

   To = Most optimistic time estimate
   Tp = Most pessimistic time estimate

3. Jemaleddin

   June 28th, 2005 at 12:08 pm

   3

   That’s pathetic – it’s just taking an average of your best and worst, then weighting it to what you already think is going to happen. So if you think it could go 5 days shorter or longer, your “scientific formula” just reinforces what you already think.

   Junk, junk, junk.

   I covered this here: http://www.tanglebones.com/articles/2004/10/07/project-management

4. cliche

   June 28th, 2005 at 1:00 pm

   4

   Jemaleddin,
   The equation is valid, and probably more accurate than what most people would do: Go with the most probable time. What really is “pathetic” is how you came up with the variables on your site to fit the results that you wanted.

5. tech geek chessmaster (im a nuclear physicist's son)

   June 28th, 2005 at 2:18 pm

   5

   I think that cliche’s equation is to-the-point and Jemaleddin’s is more logical…but i would use cliche’s

6. Jemaleddin

   June 28th, 2005 at 2:31 pm

   6

   What I posted on my site is exactly what the equation encourages you to do: reinforce your best guess.

   There’s nothing scientific about the methodology – why is your best guess 4 times more probable than your most pessimistic or optimistic guess?

   All this does is use an equation to make trusting your hunches seem scientific. A person who is good at setting timelines will be able to use this tool effectively because they’ll plug in good numbers. But a person who isn’t good at setting timelines will just be lulled into a fall sense of satisfaction by the “math” they’re playing with.