I can’t be alone in the thought that estimating project deadlines is hard. Well, picking a date isn’t hard, but picking a realistic, mostly accurate date is. Bert Webb, of Open Loops has written a helpful post on just that subject, including a nice equation for estimating a realistic deadline. If only I had always known it was as logical as an equation…
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They teach you that formula in computer engineering classes at university, or at least they should. When I told this to my former boss she told me she already knew it and showed it to me on a book, still it’s nice for those that don’t know.
Couple more equations
Marketing department: To/2
What you tell your boss: Tpx2
To = Most optimistic time estimate
Tp = Most pessimistic time estimate
That’s pathetic – it’s just taking an average of your best and worst, then weighting it to what you already think is going to happen. So if you think it could go 5 days shorter or longer, your “scientific formula” just reinforces what you already think.
Junk, junk, junk.
I covered this here: http://www.tanglebones.com/articles/2004/10/07/project-management
Jemaleddin,
The equation is valid, and probably more accurate than what most people would do: Go with the most probable time. What really is “pathetic” is how you came up with the variables on your site to fit the results that you wanted.
I think that cliche’s equation is to-the-point and Jemaleddin’s is more logical…but i would use cliche’s
What I posted on my site is exactly what the equation encourages you to do: reinforce your best guess.
There’s nothing scientific about the methodology – why is your best guess 4 times more probable than your most pessimistic or optimistic guess?
All this does is use an equation to make trusting your hunches seem scientific. A person who is good at setting timelines will be able to use this tool effectively because they’ll plug in good numbers. But a person who isn’t good at setting timelines will just be lulled into a fall sense of satisfaction by the “math” they’re playing with.