Comments on: Estimating Realistic Project Deadlines

By: Jemaleddin

Jemaleddin — Tue, 28 Jun 2005 19:31:17 +0000

What I posted on my site is exactly what the equation encourages you to do: reinforce your best guess.

There’s nothing scientific about the methodology – why is your best guess 4 times more probable than your most pessimistic or optimistic guess?

All this does is use an equation to make trusting your hunches seem scientific. A person who is good at setting timelines will be able to use this tool effectively because they’ll plug in good numbers. But a person who isn’t good at setting timelines will just be lulled into a fall sense of satisfaction by the “math” they’re playing with.

By: tech geek chessmaster (im a nuclear physicist's son)

tech geek chessmaster (im a nuclear physicist's son) — Tue, 28 Jun 2005 19:18:43 +0000

I think that cliche’s equation is to-the-point and Jemaleddin’s is more logical…but i would use cliche’s

By: cliche

cliche — Tue, 28 Jun 2005 18:00:12 +0000

Jemaleddin,
The equation is valid, and probably more accurate than what most people would do: Go with the most probable time. What really is “pathetic” is how you came up with the variables on your site to fit the results that you wanted.

By: Jemaleddin

Jemaleddin — Tue, 28 Jun 2005 17:08:00 +0000

That’s pathetic – it’s just taking an average of your best and worst, then weighting it to what you already think is going to happen. So if you think it could go 5 days shorter or longer, your “scientific formula” just reinforces what you already think.

Junk, junk, junk.

I covered this here: http://www.tanglebones.com/articles/2004/10/07/project-management

By: cliche

cliche — Tue, 28 Jun 2005 16:11:26 +0000

Couple more equations
Marketing department: To/2
What you tell your boss: Tpx2

To = Most optimistic time estimate
Tp = Most pessimistic time estimate

By: Griffith

Griffith — Tue, 28 Jun 2005 15:33:42 +0000

They teach you that formula in computer engineering classes at university, or at least they should. When I told this to my former boss she told me she already knew it and showed it to me on a book, still it’s nice for those that don’t know.