SimExchange predicts trends in the console market

Brian Shiau, from the SimExchange, which is a site that trades virtual stocks of video game products in an attempt to try and predict future trends, has recently written an article about the challenges of trying to predict which console will outsell the other. Those of you who can’t afford to purchase more than one console usually hold out on purchasing it, unless the market is more or less guaranteed for it.

According to him, the predictions made from the exchanges on his website were really close to the real life results:

Trading on the simExchange the night before NPD’s release had pointed to slight growth over February, expecting Wii sales of 385k units, PS3 sales at 144k and Xbox 360 sales at 231k. The figure for DS stood at just under 493k, while for PSP it was 180k units.

But that’s not what you really want to read. You probably want to know what console shares he predicts for the near future:

As of now the PS3 is edging past Xbox 360, with sales estimates put at 57.57 million units and 54.57 million units. Wii is also on the up, reaching 73.37 million. At the close of yesterday’s trading, the global market share prediction for this generation stood at 31.03 per cent for PS3, 29.42 per cent for Xbox 360 and 39.55 per cent for the Nintendo Wii.

So there you have it folks, approximately 40% of the market will belong to Nintendo, and the rest will be (more or less) equally divided by Sony and Microsoft. Unlike Sega, that came out with the “weaker”, yet appealing, Dreamcast, but failed to properly promote it, Nintendo is betting a lot on advertisement. Its innovative controller has proved, over the time, that it didn’t have a short appeal to customers.

Sony on the other hand, made one of the worst campaigns I have ever seen to promote their console, that cost them many, many customers. Microsoft’s biggest problem with it’s console is simply it’s unreliability. The Xbox 360 is clearly a console that was rushed into the market before it was supposed to and the numerous flaws and problems that emerged since then prove that.

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