Vista is following Windows 95's path
Ed Bott, from ZDnet, recently wrote a really interesting article about how similar Windows Vista is to Windows 95. Although some people have started calling Vista a failure, or even calling it Windows ME2 (though personally I haven’t heard anyone calling it that), Bott compared Vista with 95, and from the past experience, he tells us what we can expect in the upcoming years.
Here are the similarities between the two:
Unachievable levels of hype
A very long and public beta
Initial compatibility, performance, and stability problems
A beginning, not an end (by this he reffers to the “leap” into 64bit)
And if all continues as it has until now, this is what we can expect (or not) from Vista in the future:
Service Pack 1 won’t work miracles
Businesses will continue to stay away from Vista in droves
Expect a major update Vista update after three years
In short, Microsoft will only get it “right” with Vista after 3 years. And when that happens, people will be craving for a new Operative System that will, most likely, fail to sell as well as Microsoft expected, due to the same problems that Vista had, and so we enter yet another operative system cycle… and so on, and so on…
I wonder if Microsoft can afford to take that path at the rate that Apple and Linux are gaining new users.